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The main idea here is that the decline of Mali and Songhai was driven largely by economic and trade changes rather than just natural or purely military problems. These empires built their wealth and power on controlling the trans-Saharan trade of gold, salt, and other goods. As Atlantic and maritime trade grew, Europeans opened new sea routes and coastal markets, and caravans across the Sahara diminished. That shift reduced the revenue the empires could tax and extract from long-distance trade, weakening their ability to fund armies, administration, and projects.

At the same time, states faced economic mismanagement—systems of taxation, governance, and spending that weren’t flexible or efficient enough to adapt to shrinking revenues and changing trade patterns. When the money flow dried up and governance faltered, the states could not effectively respond to external pressures or internal challengers, making them more vulnerable to collapse.

Other factors like natural disasters or crop failures, while possible in broader regional history, are not the best-fit explanations for the rapid political and economic unraveling these empires experienced in the 15th–16th centuries. Internal disputes and conflicts did occur, but the combination of declining trade revenue and weaker administration best accounts for the widespread weakening that led to their decline.